>> CATHY: WE'VE BEEN DOING OUR NEARLY ANNUAL WEATHER QUIZZES WITH PAUL DOUGLAS FOR DECADES NOW.

AND THEY ARE ALWAYS SO MUCH FUN.

LONGTIME VIEWERS MAY HAVE NOTED FORMER "ALMANAC" REGULAR J.G.

PRESTON IN THAT SHORT EXCERPT.

I AM HAPPY TO REPORT THAT J.G.

WILL BE JOINING US IN JUST A FEW WEEKS TO CELEBRATE OUR 40TH ANNIVERSARY.

40 YEARS, WOW.

BUT I DIGRESS.

SPEAKING OF WEATHER, AND OUR LONGTIME METEOROLOGICAL FRIEND PAUL DOUGLAS IS HERE.

IN HIS SPARE TIME, HE RUNS HIS OWN WEATHER COMPANY, PREDICTX.

SO I'M THINKING, SO I'M THINKING, MY FRIEND, THAT THIS WEEKEND MIGHT BE THE WEEKEND TO HANG THE HOLIDAY LIGHTS BECAUSE OF THIS INCOMING STORM SYSTEM, IS THAT CORRECT?

>> YES.

I WOULD GET SERIOUS ABOUT YOUR DRIVEWAY STAKES AND MAYBE START REARRANGING THE CLOSET, MORE HEAVY JACKETS, BOOTS, NOTHING ARCTIC, BUT, FIRST, CAN WE REMINISCE?

CAN WE ACKNOWLEDGE THAT IT HAS BEEN A LONG, LUXURIOUS AUTUMN?

>> Cathy: ES.

>> SUPER-SIZED WARMTH.

>> Cathy: YES.

>> MY SPACE LASER REMAINS UNDEFEATED.

>> Cathy: GOOD FOR YOU!

>> Eric: WILL YOU ILLUSTRATE THIS WITH SOME VISUALS?

>> MARJORIE TAYLOR GREEN, IT'S ALL ME, IT'S ALL ME DOING THIS.

WHAT AN AUTUMN.

AND A LOT OF PEOPLE ACTUALLY PREFER AUTUMN AND NOW THERE'S JUST MORE AUTUMN CONSISTENTLY.

AND THIS HAS BEEN THE WARMEST START TO AUTUMN, METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN, BEGINNING SEPTEMBER 1st ON RECORD SINCE 1872, TIED FOR THE WARMEST START TO AN ENTIRE YEAR.

>> Eric: WOW.

>> ON RECORD.

SO, YEAH, IT HAS BEEN EXTRAORDINARY.

AND WHAT A MIXED-UP YEAR IN TERMS OF MOISTURE.

THE WETS ARE WETTER, THE DRIES ARE DRYER, A DROUGHT SANDWICH.

WE STARTED WITH DROUGHT, WE'RE ENDING WITH DROUGHT.

METRO, THE DROUGHT HAS EASED.

IT'S STILL DRY, BUT THERE'S STILL A SEVERE DROUGHT, MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA, WITH THE SEVENTH WETTEST SUMMER ON RECORD, SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREME DROUGHTS.

I HAVE NOT SEEN THAT IN 40 YEARS.

AND, AGAIN, PRECIPITATION ABOVE AVERAGE.

IF YOU STEP BACK AND LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE, WE'RE RUNNING A SURPLUS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA.

LOOK AT THE DEPARTURES.

WE'RE ACTUALLY ABOVE AVERAGE NOW.

EVERYTHING IN GREEN, WETTER THAN AVERAGE.

BUT THAT'S LOOKING SINCE JANUARY 1st.

IF YOU LOOK SINCE SEPTEMBER THE 1st, WE'RE ACTUALLY RUNNING A DEFICIT.

IT'S LIKE MOISTURE WENT OFF A CLIFF IN LATE AUGUST, EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SO, YEAH, A BIT OF A HEAD SCRATCHER THERE.

OKAY.

AND, YES, A REALITY CHECK, NOT ARCTIC, BUT BELOW AVERAGE.

NEXT WEEK 40s, AND I THINK 30s FOR THANKSGIVING WEEK.

COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW AROUND THANKSGIVING.

NOT SURE WE'LL HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO ACTUALLY WHIP UP A STORM.

BUT WETTER IS -- BUT WINTER IS COMING.

IT'S JUST LATE.

I WANT TO MENTION FLORIDA HAS BEEN HIT SO HARD THIS YEAR.

MILTON AND HELENE AND, AGAIN, WE'RE LOOKING AT ANYWHERE FROM 51 TO 81 BILLION DOLLARS IN HURRICANE DAMAGE, ACCORDING TO CORE LOGIC.

WHICH GOT ME THINKING ABOUT RISK.

HERE WE HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT OCCASIONAL TORNADOES, HAIL, FLASH FLOODING.

WE O HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISK OVER MUCH OF MINNESOTA, ESPECIALLY METRO ON SOUTH AND WEST.

NOTHING LIKE THE GULF COAST, EARTHQUAKE RISK OUT WEST.

THE AVERAGE PERSON HAS PAID 30% MORE IN NSURANCE PREMIUMS FOR PROPERTY INSURANCE JUST SINCE 2020.

>> Eric: OUCH!

>> AND HERE'S SOMETHING TO CONSIDER.

WINTER SHRINKAGE IS REAL IN MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND.

THE UPPER MIDWEST HAS WARMED 4 TO 7 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES, 4 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN BACK IN 1970.

IF YOU DOUBT THAT, ASK ANYBODY WHO OWNS A SNOWMOBILE.

THIS WINTER, WE DON'T HAVE EL NINO TO KEEP THINGS MILDER, LIKE WE DID LAST WINTER WHEN IT WAS IN THE 50s IN JANUARY AND FEBRUARY.

AVERAGE SNOWFALL IS CLOSE TO 52.

I THINK WE'RE GOING TO E SOMEWHERE IN THAT RANGE.

OF COURSE, YOUR RESULTS, AS ALWAYS, MAY VARY.

>> Eric: WHAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MORE OR LESS THAN 50 INCHES OF SNOW?

WHAT FACTORS WOULD BE INVOLVED?

>> TORMS.

IF WE ACTUALLY -- >> Eric: IS THAT WHY YOU MAKE THE HEAVY MONEY, TO COME UP WITH STORMS?

[ Laughter ] >> WELL, THAT'S THE SIMPLE ANSWER.

I MEAN, LOOK, A SNOWSTORM IS A DELICATE BALANCE BETWEEN MOISTURE AND COLD AIR.

TOO MUCH COLD AIR SHIFTS THE STORM EAST.

AND, SO, IT REMAINS O BE SEEN.

I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE A MORE TYPICAL PATTERN, WHERE WE DO OCCASIONALLY GET JET STREAM WINDS BLOWING UP FROM NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS, BLOWING THAT GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD.

AND I THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

LAST WINTER, 29 1/2 INCHES OF SNOW.

>> Cathy: PATHETIC.

>> AVERAGE S 52.

EVEN IF WE HAVE AN VERAGE WINTER, SOME MINNESOTANS WILL BE COMPLAINING, IT WILL FEEL COLDER THAN LAST WINTER, BUT LOOK AT THE TRENDS.

OUR WINTERS AREN'T WHAT THEY USED TO BE, ESPECIALLY IN THE 1970s.

>> Eric: DON'T SHOOT THE MESSENGER, ISN'T THAT YOUR MESSAGE?

>> THANK YOU FOR THAT PS, YES.