>> CATHY: WE'VE BEEN CHECKING IN REGULARLY WITH OUR ROTATING GROUP OF POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSORS THIS ELECTION SEASON.

HERE'S TONIGHT'S TRIO.

LARRY JACOBS HEADS UP THE CENTER FOR POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE AT THE U OF M'S HUMPHREY SCHOOL.

STEVE SCHIER IS A PROFESSOR EMERITUS AT CARLETON COLLEGE.

AND DRIVING DOWN I-35 TO JOIN US TONIGHT, CINDY RUGELEY HEADS UP THE POLITICAL SCIENCE DEPARTMENT AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA DULUTH.

SINCE THE CAMERA'S ON YOU, PROFESSOR RUGELEY, WE ASKED THAT QUESTION OF OUR FRIEND JOHN McCORMICK ABOUT ANY MOVEMENT, DID THAT DEBATE CAUSE ANY MOVEMENT IN THIS VERY TIGHT RACE IN TERMS OF THE POLLS YOU'VE SEEN?

>> IT'S HARD TO SAY.

ONE OF THE THINGS YOU HAVE TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT, WE ARE A VERY HEAVILY POLARIZED COUNTRY.

AND I MEAN, I THINK PEOPLE STICK TO THEIR TEAM JERSEYS A WHOLE LOT.

THIS IS GOING TO BE A TIGHT ELECTION, ANY ELECTION, I BELIEVE, GOING FORWARD IS GOING TO BE A TIGHT ELECTION.

SO DID IT MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

MAYBE A LITTLE BIT.

AND IF IT DID, I THINK WHAT IT DID MIGHT HAVE BEEN MORE REASSURING PEOPLE THAT THINKING, YOU KNOW, MAYBE I WILL VOTE FOR HER, YOU KNOW, AND, I MEAN, I'M KIND OF CURIOUS TO SEE, YOU KNOW, THERE'S ALWAYS THESE VOTERS, AND I THINK THEY MAKE MORE OF A DIFFERENCE THAN PEOPLE REALIZE.

SOMETIMES IT'S NOT THE VOTER WHO VOTES FOR SOMEBODY THAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE, IT'S THE VOTER WHO STAYS AT HOME.

AND, SO, I'M ALWAYS WONDER ABOUT THESE VOTERS WHO, THE ONES THAT SAY, I CAN'T VOTE FOR THE PERSON WHO'S IN MY PARTY, BUT I WON'T VOTE FOR THE OTHER ONE.

BECAUSE I THINK THEY'RE THE ONES THAT TEND TO MAKE AN ELECTION.

AND I'M WONDERING IF WE HAD SOME CAN'T, WON'T MOVING AWAY FROM TRUMP.

>> WELL, YEAH, BY CONVENTIONAL STANDARDS, THERE'S NO DOUBT THAT SHE WAS THE WINNER OF THE DEBATE.

THE EXIT -- THE RECENT SURVEYS RIGHT AFTER THAT INDICATE THAT.

BUT WHAT'S THE EFFECT ON THE PUBLIC, THAT'S AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT MATTER.

AND I WAS WATCHING THE DIAL GROUPS DURING THE DEBATE, AND HERE'S A KEY FACT.

THE INDEPENDENTS WERE TRACKING ALMOST IDENTICALLY WITH THE REPUBLICAN RESPONSE, NOT THE DEMOCRATIC RESPONSE, WHICH REALLY STUNNED ME.

AND IF THAT HAPPENS, YOU KNOW, IN NOVEMBER, THAT'S ACTUALLY GOOD NEWS FOR TRUMP, DESPITE A BAD DEBATE PERFORMANCE.

YOU KNOW?

>> Eric: WAS THE BIGGER NEWS ON THAT NIGHT TAYLOR SWIFT'S ENDORSEMENT MORE THAN THE DEBATE ITSELF?

HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF YOUNG PEOPLE WENT TO REGISTER THIS WEEK.

>> YEAH, WE'LL SEE IF THAT'S SUSTAINED.

I MEAN, I AGREE WITH CINDY, THAT THE BIG ISSUE HERE WILL BE WHO TURNS OUT.

AND WE'RE NOT TALKING, YOU KNOW, EVERYONE TURNING OUT.

WE'RE TALKING ABOUT DISTINCT GROUPS, PARTICULARLY YOUNG PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN NOT THAT INTERESTED IN THIS ELECTION.

A LOT OF THE YOUNG PEOPLE, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE CONCERNED ABOUT INFLATION, ANOTHER GROUP VERY CONCERNED ABOUT GAZA, AND THEIR ENTHUSIASM FOR THE RACE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY ONCE HARRIS WAS THE CANDIDATE OVER BIDEN.

BUT IT STILL MAY BE FLAGGING, AND THAT'S A BIG CONCERN FOR THE DEMOCRATS.

'.

>> Cathy: SAY, YOU KNOW, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT POLLS, OF COURSE, EACH CAMP HAS THEIR OWN INTERNAL POLLS, RIGHT?

I WONDER, THE FACT THAT GOVERNOR WALZ IS GOING TO DALLAS, AND HE WAS IN VEGAS, I MEAN, DO YOU THINK THAT THEIR INTERNAL POLLS ARE SHOWING SOME -- YOU DON'T EXPECT, YOU KNOW, THE DEMOCRATS IN DALLAS.

WHAT DO YOU THINK, YOU'RE FROM TEXAS, WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THAT?

>> I THINK YOU GO TO DALLAS TO RAISE MONEY.

>> THAT'S RIGHT.

>> THERE'S A WHOLE LOT OF MONEY FOR DEMOCRATS IN DALLAS.

I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO CONCENTRATE ON THE SEVEN STATES.

I MEAN, POLITICS, IT'S NOT HOW MANY YOU CAN WIN, IT'S JUST 50 PLUS ONE.

THEY JUST WANT TO WIN THE ELECTION.

SO IT'S GOING TO BE SEVEN STATES, AND THAT'S JUST THE WAY IT IS.

>> Eric: HOW DISRUPTIVE COULD THE EVENTS AROUND THE VOTE COUNTING AND THE VOTE CASTING, THE CERTIFICATION PROCESS HAS BEEN CALLED A SERIOUS EVENT BY HOMELAND SECURITY.

>> YES.

>> Eric: WHAT DO WE EXPECT THERE?

AND CAN WE PREVENT SOME OTHER TROUBLES FROM HAPPENING?

>> WELL, I THINK WE HAVE A CLUE AS TO HOW DISRUPTIVE IT CAN BE.

FOUR YEARS AGO, WE KNOW THAT.

AND IT WILL VARY STATE TO STATE.

DIFFERENT STATES HAVE TAKEN DIFFERENT PROCEDURES.

THERE WILL BE GREATER CONTROVERSY IN SOME STATES THAN OTHERS.

AND CYNTHIA WAS SAYING HOW CLOSE IT IS, REALLY IS WHAT WILL MATTER.

SO, IS IT LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME CONTROVERSIES AFTER THE ELECTION DAY?

YES.

WHERE?

DON'T KNOW.

HOW SEVERE?

IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY.

>> SO I WORK PRETTY CLOSELY WITH ELECTION OFFICIALS AROUND THE COUNTRY.

WE HAVE THE LARGEST ONLINE TRAINING PROGRAM, IT'S A PIPELINE FOR NEW PEOPLE TO GET INVOLVED.

AND THE ELECTION OFFICIALS I TALK TO AT THE STATE AND LOCAL LEVEL, BECAUSE THEY'RE THE ONES WHO RUN ELECTIONS, THEY'RE PRETTY CONFIDENT.

I THINK THEY FEEL LIKE THEY'RE IN A BETTER SPOT THAN THEY WERE FOUR YEARS AGO.

THERE'S NEW LEGISLATION AROUND THE ELECTORAL -- THE ELECTORS AND HOW THEY'RE HANDLED, SO WE'LL GET INTO THE VICE PRESIDENT/PENCE DRAM A THAT'S BEEN ADDRESSED.

DRAMA.

THERE'S ALSO BEEN THE SUPREME COURT DECISION WHICH UPHOLDS THE LAW IN THE CONSTITUTION IN THE STATES, IT KIND OF PULLS BACK FROM SOME OF THE OTHER EGREGIOUS EFFORTS BY THE LEGISLATURES.

AND, SO, I THINK THERE'S REAL REASON TO THINK THAT IT'S GOING TO BE FAIRLY CLEAN ELECTION.

THERE WILL BE CONTROVERSY.

>> RIGHT.

>> AND THERE WILL BE CLAIMS OF CONTROVERSY.

>> YEAH.

YEAH.

>> YOU KNOW, CLAIMS OF FRAUD.

BUT THAT, I THINK, IS JUST A STRATEGY TO TRY TO CREATE CONFUSION.

[ OVERLAPPING CONVERSATION ] >> AGREE TOTALLY WITH AGREE.

I AGREE.

>> NO PANDEMIC, THAT WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE, TOO, IN TERMS OF, THAT PRODUCED A LOT OF HASTY AND IRREGULAR VOTING PROCEDURES THAT WE'RE NOT GOING TO HAVE THIS TIME.

>> YOU KNOW, I AGREE WITH LARRY.

WE'RE TALKING ABOUT TWO DIFFERENT DIMENSIONS HERE.

ONE IS WHAT REALLY HAPPENS AND ONE IS WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO ARGUE AND WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO YELL.

I MEAN, FORMER PRESIDENT'S ALREADY STIRRING THE POT ON THAT.

SO, YES, THERE'S GOING TO BE CONTROVERSY.

BUT WILL IT BE SOMETHING WHERE THERE TRULY IS PROBLEMS?

I DON'T THINK SO.

LARRY, HE'S RIGHT, I MEAN, WHAT THEY DO AT THE HUMPHREY SCHOOL IS PRETTY IMPRESSIVE.

I THINK THEY'VE GOT IT PRETTY WELL TIGHTENED UP.

>> Cathy: BOTH SIDES ARE LAWYERING UP ALREADY, THOUGH.

>> RIGHT.

SO THERE'S TWO PHASES.

THERE'S THE PHASE BETWEEN NOW AND ELECTION DAY.

WHICH IS GOING TO BE ABOUT THE CASTING OF BALLOTS, THE STUFF GOING ON IN GEORGIA, ELSEWHERE THAT HAS ALREADY LED TO LEGAL CHALLENGES.

AND THEN THERE'S GOING TO BE THE FIGHT AFTER THE ELECTION DAY, PARTICULARLY IF DONALD TRUMP LOSES.

AND, YOU KNOW, THAT'S GOING TO BE BATTLE.

BUT THE COURTS DID VERY WELL, YOU KNOW, I THINK WE CAN EXPECT THAT TO BE ANDLED IN A VERY PROFESSIONAL MANNER.

I'M PRETTY CONFIDENT IT'S GOING TO GO -- YOU KNOW, IT WILL GO.

>> Eric: IMPACT OF EARLY VOTING?

>> IT ALWAYS HAS AN IMPACT.

YOU KNOW, ONE THING, ONCE YOUR BALLOT'S IN THE BOX, YOU CAN'T PULL IT BACK OUT.

>> Eric: AND IT'S ALREADY STARTED IN SOME STATES, RIGHT?

>> RIGHT.

THE NORTH CAROLINA THING IS WEIRD, BUT EVERYTHING INVOLVING RFK JUNIOR IS WEIRD.

>> Eric: ON THE BALLOT HERE IN MINNESOTA, RIGHT?

>> RIGHT.

ON THE WEIRD PARTY.

BUT, I MEAN -- >> Eric: WE GO ON THE 20th OF SEPTEMBER.

>> RIGHT.

RIGHT.

>> Eric: DOES IT AFFECT -- HELP -- YOU KNOW, THE REPUBLICANS APPARENTLY, THIS YEAR, THEY'RE ENCOURAGING THAT.

>> YEAH, UT DONALD TRUMP'S DISCOURAGING IT.

>> Eric: IS HE STILL?

>> IT'S A BIG MISTAKE BY FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP BECAUSE YOU'VE GOT A GROUP OF VOTERS WHO AREN'T GOING TO USE THE OPTION TO SEND IN THE MAIL BALLOT, VOTE EARLY.

AND THE RESULT IS, THEY MAY LOSE THOSE VOTES.

THE DEMOCRATS, THEIR ATTITUDE IS, LET'S GET ALL THE, YOU KNOW, LEGAL VOTES, LET'S GET THEM IN THE BAG.

AND THAT'S -- >> ONE OF THE INTERESTING THINGS ABOUT EARLY VOTING -- >> Eric: QUICK.

>> -- A LOT OF STUDIES EARLY ON SHOWS IT DIDN'T MAKE ANY DIFFERENCE, THEY WERE JUST VOTING EARLY.

>> Eric: ALL RIGHT.